Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.30% | -60.00% | 0.88 |
| 1 | 34.40% | -39.50% | 1.43 |
| 2 | 47.50% | -19.00% | 1.97 |
| 3 | 60.60% | 1.50% | 2.51 |
| 4 | 73.80% | 22.20% | 3.06 |
| 5 | 86.90% | 42.70% | 3.61 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 63.20% | 4.15 |
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
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