Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 21.30% -60.00% 0.88
1 34.40% -39.50% 1.43
2 47.50% -19.00% 1.97
3 60.60% 1.50% 2.51
4 73.80% 22.20% 3.06
5 86.90% 42.70% 3.61
6 100.00% 63.20% 4.15

Increase contact rate on 2020-07-14 by variable amounts


In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.88
  • % of original R0: 21.3
  • % Increase from current: -60

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.43
  • % of original R0: 34.4
  • % Increase from current: -39.5

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.97
  • % of original R0: 47.5
  • % Increase from current: -19

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.51
  • % of original R0: 60.6
  • % Increase from current: 1.5

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.06
  • % of original R0: 73.8
  • % Increase from current: 22.2

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.61
  • % of original R0: 86.9
  • % Increase from current: 42.7

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.15
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 63.2