Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

• Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
• % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
• % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-07-14) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	21.30%	-60.00%	0.88
1	34.40%	-39.50%	1.43
2	47.50%	-19.00%	1.97
3	60.60%	1.50%	2.51
4	73.80%	22.20%	3.06
5	86.90%	42.70%	3.61
6	100.00%	63.20%	4.15

Increase contact rate on 2020-07-14 by variable amounts

In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 0.88
• % of original R0: 21.3
• % Increase from current: -60

Scenario 1

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.43
• % of original R0: 34.4
• % Increase from current: -39.5

Scenario 2

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.97
• % of original R0: 47.5
• % Increase from current: -19

Scenario 3

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.51
• % of original R0: 60.6
• % Increase from current: 1.5

Scenario 4

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.06
• % of original R0: 73.8
• % Increase from current: 22.2

Scenario 5

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.61
• % of original R0: 86.9
• % Increase from current: 42.7

Scenario 6

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 4.15
• % of original R0: 100
• % Increase from current: 63.2